ECOM and the Estonian Institute for Health Development Updated the Estimated Number of MSM in Estonia

ECOM systematically analyzes the changes in the size of the LGBT community in the EECA region. Together with the Estonian National Institute for Health Development, we are publishing the second estimate of the number of MSM in Estonia.

According to data published in April 2023, the number of MSM in Estonia is 9,909 people. The results of the second study, obtained by applying different methods of assessment and data sources, are in the same range as the previous assessment in 2009. The updated data can be used to analyze, plan and implement health interventions, primarily for HIV prevention, treatment and care programs for MSM in the country.

The first assessment was carried out using the European MSM Internet Survey (EMIS 2009) and showed that the number of MSM in Estonia in 2010 was 9,195 people. The second study was carried out according to WHO recommendations using various assessment methods and data sources and is generally based on the Biobehavioral Survey (IBBS) of MSM in the capital of Estonia, data from NGOs, dating sites and dating apps for MSM.

It should be taken into account that any study has a number of limitations, which can lead to under- or overestimation of the size of the community. In this case, the participants in the biobehavioral study were not a random sample, which imposes a number of limitations on the initial data. NGO clients and users of dating apps may include respondents who are more open about their sexuality. As a result, these samples may not represent all MSM in Estonia, which would mean that the actual number of MSM in the country is higher. On the other hand, the distribution of MSM across the country may be uneven due to the tendency to move to the capital, where there is a higher level of anonymity for MSM and more community members. In this case, this would mean that the actual number of MSM in Estonia could be lower. Also, as a result of the Russian war in Ukraine, a large number of refugees arrived in Estonia, which may lead to a change in the number of MSM.

However, despite all the limitations, the results of the second study can be used in many areas, including planning, implementation and evaluation of HIV prevention, treatment and care programs for MSM.

ECOM recommends, taking into account a number of objective factors outlined above, to conduct a new assessment of the number of MSM as soon as possible, improving the IBBS questionnaire to ensure data completeness. Additionally, it is important to conduct a biobehavioral study and estimate the population size of transgender and non-binary people in Estonia, which is currently a knowledge gap.

In order to more accurately estimate the size of MSM and the LGBT community in general, it is important to support NGOs providing technical assistance to the community for implementing systems to register unique clients.

Read the full study here.